A probabilistic framework for quantification of aftershock ground-motion hazard in California: Methodology and parametric study

This research paper presents a probabilistic framework for evaluating time-varying aftershock ground-motion hazard in California.

This research paper introduces aftershock probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (APSHA), a methodology for estimating the likelihood of ground-motion intensities caused by aftershocks following a mainshock. The framework incorporates time-dependent aftershock occurrence rates, mainshock magnitude and location, aftershock-zone geometry, magnitude distributions, source-to-site distance, and ground-motion variability.

The paper includes a parametric study based on California fault scenarios, examining the effects of elapsed time, analysis duration, mainshock magnitude, rupture length, site location, and structural period on aftershock hazard. Its applications include post-earthquake safety evaluation, building tagging, evacuation decisions, structural inspection, repair, and re-occupancy assessment.

Application Scope: Earthquake engineering, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, aftershock risk assessment, post-earthquake building safety, structural inspection, and emergency decision-making.